‘The 49th Annual ACM Awards’ – CMIL Predictions

‘The 49th Annual ACM Awards’ – CMIL Predictions

ACM Awards logo 2014

In just two short days, country music’s hottest stars will gather at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas for “Country Music’s Party of the Year,” “The 49th Annual ACM Awards.”

As we do each and every year, we’ve compiled our predictions for winners in each of the ACM Awards categories. This year, we’ve also included the official ACM Awards nomination criteria for each category to help fans better understand what each award is about.

Check out our predictions below. Be sure to leave a comment with your thoughts and predictions as well!

Entertainer of the Year

• Luke Bryan
• Miranda Lambert
• Blake Shelton
• George Strait
• Taylor Swift

Nomination Criteria: This award is presented to the individual, duo or group who showed the most overall success in the country music industry during the prior calendar year of November 29, 2012 to November 27, 2013. The factors to be considered include, but are not limited to, success at radio, sales of pre-recorded music, success of music videos, vocal performances, live concert ticket sales, artistic merit, appearances on television, appearances in films, songwriting, success in digital media, and contributions to the country music industry. The nominees shall be determined by a nomination ballot(s) and are subject to the approval of the Board. The final nominees are voted on by the ACM professional membership with the winner being determined by a combination of votes from the professional membership of the ACM and fan voting (online and/or text).

Who Should Win: It’s been a stellar year for each of the nominees in this category. Luke Bryan has been selling out shows in minutes, Miranda Lambert has been the leading female on the charts, Blake Shelton brought country music to a wider audience, once again, thanks to back-to-back seasons on “The Voice,” George Strait made history on the charts with 60 No.1 singles, and Taylor Swift continued her reign as an international superstar. While one could argue that each of the nominees is worthy of the award, it seems Luke Bryan and Blake Shelton are front runners based on the nomination criteria alone.

Who Will Win: Considering this award is fan-voted, reigning ACM Entertainer of the Year Luke Bryan definitely has the edge, however, it’s likely that die-hard country music fans will pull through for George Strait. Afterall, he’s retiring from the road after this year and it would be a great sendoff!

Male Vocalist of the year

• Jason Aldean
• Lee Brice
• Luke Bryan
• Blake Shelton
• Keith Urban

Nomination Criteria: This award is presented to an outstanding individual male vocalist in the country music industry during the prior calendar year of November 29, 2012 to November 27, 2013. The factors to be considered include, but are not limited to, success at radio, sales of pre-recorded music, success in digital media, live concert ticket sales and vocal performances. The nominees shall be determined by a nomination ballot(s) and are subject to the approval of the Board. The winner shall be determined by a vote of the ACM professional membership.

Who Should Win: This is always one of the toughest categories to predict! This category’s front-runners are Jason Aldean, Luke Bryan, and Blake Shelton. However, considering his massive sold-out tour, his success on the charts, and his impressive Crash My Party album sales, we think Bryan has the edge over Aldean and Shelton.

Who Will Win: While Blake Shelton is a voter favorite, we think Luke Bryan will prevail.

Female Vocalist of the year

• Sheryl Crow
• Miranda Lambert
• Kacey Musgraves
• Taylor Swift
• Carrie Underwood

Nomination Criteria: This award is presented to an outstanding individual female vocalist in the country music industry during the prior calendar year of November 29, 2012 to November 27, 2013. The factors to be considered include, but are not limited to, success at radio, sales of pre-recorded music, success in digital media, live concert ticket sales and vocal performances. The nominees shall be determined by a nomination ballot(s) and are subject to the approval of the Board. The winner shall be determined by a vote of the ACM professional membership.

Who Should Win: Carrie Underwood. During the nomination period, the Oklahoma native had two highly successful singles with “Two Black Cadillacs” and “See You Again,” as well as a massive tour with her Blown Away Tour. It may be hard to believe, but it’s been SIX years since Underwood claimed the title of Female Vocalist. She’s more than deserving of the trophy this year, so it would be great to hear her name called on Sunday.

Who Will Win: Miranda Lambert will likely take this one home. She’s been on quite the winning streak and it doesn’t appear to be over yet.

Vocal Duo of the year

• Big & Rich
• Dan + Shay
• Florida Georgia Line
• Love and Theft
• Thompson Square

Nomination Criteria: This award is presented to an outstanding duo featuring at least one vocalist in the country music industry during the prior calendar year of November 29, 2012 to November 27, 2013. The factors to be considered include, but are not limited to, success at radio, sales of pre-recorded music, success in digital media, live concert ticket sales and vocal performances. The nominees shall be determined by a nomination ballot(s) and are subject to the approval of the Board. The winner shall be determined by a vote of the ACM professional membership.
In the event that the Board of Directors determines that there are not enough nominees in this category in any particular year, this category may be merged with the Vocal Group by the Board, and shall be called Vocal Duo or Group.

Who Should Win: There is no doubt in our minds that Florida Georgia Line should and will win this award. They’ve had an incredibly successful year.

Who Will Win: Again, we’d be shocked if FGL doesn’t take this one home.

Vocal Group of the year

• Eli Young Band
• Lady Antebellum
• Little Big Town
• The Band Perry
• Zac Brown Band

Nomination Criteria: This award is presented to an outstanding group featuring at least one vocalist in the country music industry during the prior calendar year of November 29, 2012 to November 27, 2013. The factors to be considered include, but are not limited to, success at radio, sales of pre-recorded music, success in digital media, live concert ticket sales and vocal performances. The nominees shall be determined by a nomination ballot(s) and are subject to the approval of the Board. The winner shall be determined by a vote of the ACM professional membership.
In the event that the Board of Directors determines that there are not enough nominees in this category in any particular year, this category may be merged with the Vocal Duo by the Board, and shall be called Vocal Duo or Group.

Who Should Win: It’s been a great year for each of these groups, especially The Band Perry and Lady Antebellum. Both groups released albums, brought singles to the top of the charts, and had success on the touring front. Lady Antebellum is likely the front-runner here though.

Who Will Win: Little Big Town is a voter favorite. While they also had a great year, their momentum has definitely slowed down this year. This is Lady Antebellum’s to lose.

New Artist of the Year
• Brett Eldredge
• Kip Moore
• Justin Moore

Nomination Criteria: The Board of Directors may elect to give out this award from time to time, in lieu of, or in addition to, the New Male Vocalist, New Female Vocalist and New Vocal Duo or Group, or New Solo Vocalist and New Vocal Duo or New Vocal Group by a majority vote of the Board of Directors. For the 2014 awards show, the Board of Directors elected to give an overall New Artist of the Year award in lieu of New Male Vocalist, New Female Vocalist, and New Vocal Duo or Group.
This award is presented to an outstanding male vocalist, female vocalist, vocal duo or vocal group in the country music industry who gains either initial fame or significantly greater recognition through their efforts during the prior calendar year of November 29, 2012 to November 27, 2013. The artist(s) must have success in digital media; in addition to having charted a single in the Top 40 on Billboard’s Country Airplay (BDS) or Country Aircheck (Mediabase) country charts; and/or selling 100,000 album units reflected in Nielsen SoundScan during the qualifying period. The top eight (8) vote getters determined by a nomination ballot, subject to the approval of the Board, will be considered semi-finalists, with the final three (3) nominees being determined by a combination of votes from the ACM professional membership and fan voting (online). The winner is determined by a combination of votes from the ACM professional membership and fan voting (online).
Any solo artist that has sold 500,000 copies of a previously released album (with general exclusions of specialty albums, such as seasonal or live recordings) according to Nielsen SoundScan, are not eligible for this category. Additionally, solo artists that previously served (or are currently serving) as lead vocalists for, or otherwise fronted duos or groups that have sold 500,000 copies of previously released albums, according to Nielsen SoundScan, are not eligible for the this category.
An artist may be a nominee two times in a three-year period. If an artist is a winner in the New Male Vocalist, New Female Vocalist, New Solo Vocalist, New Vocal Duo, New Vocal Group or New Vocal Duo or Group categories, their first year on a ballot, they will not be eligible in this category again. Any artist who has previously won the on-camera award for Entertainer, Male Vocalist, Female Vocalist, Vocal Duo or Vocal Group is ineligible for a New Artist nomination.

Who Should Win: This category has been causing a heated debate ever since the finalists were revealed because many fans feel that Justin Moore does not meet the qualifications to be considered “new.” Others, however, are rooting for Justin Moore, who earned his first No.1 single in 2009, because he’s more than paid his dues to get where he’s at today. In our opinion, Kip Moore should be the winner in this category. He’s achieved great success with his debut album and more than fits the qualifications listed to be nominated.

Who Will Win: It’s really a toss up. It will likely come down to Justin Moore and Kip Moore. With all of the controversy surrounding this nomination, Kip will likely have the edge.

Album of the Year
[Awarded to Artist(s)/Producer(s)/Record Company–Label(s)]

Based On A True Story… – Blake Shelton
Producer: Scott Hendricks
Record Label: Warner Bros. Records

Crash My Party – Luke Bryan
Producer: Jeff Stevens
Record Label: Capitol Records Nashville

Here’s To The Good Times – Florida Georgia Line
Producer: Joey Moi
Record Label: Republic Nashville

Same Trailer Different Park – Kacey Musgraves
Producers: Luke Laird, Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves
Record Label: Mercury Records

Two Lanes Of Freedom – Tim McGraw
Producers: Byron Gallimore, Tim McGraw
Record Label: Big Machine Records

Nomination Criteria: This award is presented to the primary artist(s), producer(s) and record company of an outstanding country music album released during the prior calendar year of November 29, 2012 – November 27, 2013. An album is defined as a unified released body of work with a minimum of either seven (7) full-length musical works and/or thirty (30) minutes in length. The nominees shall be determined by a nomination ballot(s) and are subject to the approval of the Board. The winner shall be determined by a vote of the ACM professional membership.
An album is considered released on the first available date that the material can be possessed by a consumer via a purchase in its entirety and/or streamed legally in its entirety by a royalty-generating service. If the album was released during the two (2) prior eligibility periods, but achieved its largest annual sales during the eligibility period according to SoundScan, it is eligible unless it has appeared on a final ACM ballot in this category.
To be eligible, a minimum of 51% of the standard edition of the album must contain songs that have not been previously released by the artist prior to thirty (30) days from the album’s release date. “Best Of” and “Greatest Hits” albums are ineligible.
Only the standard edition of an album may be submitted for eligibility, as determined by the record company. Once an album is nominated in the final round, it may not be nominated in alternate configurations for future voting.

Who Should Win: Each of these albums are solid bodies of work in their own right, however, the one that stands out the most is Kacey Musgraves’ Same Trailer Different Park. This album generated a lot of buzz from Nashville and beyond and received the most critical acclaim out of the other albums nominated. Blake Shelton’s Based On A True Story… is a close second.

Who Will Win: Our money is on Same Trailer Different Park.

Single Record of the Year
[Awarded to Artist(s)/Producer(s)/Record Company–Label(s)]

• “Cruise” – Florida Georgia Line
Producer: Joey Moi
Record Label: Republic Nashville

• “Highway Don’t Care” – Tim McGraw Featuring Taylor Swift & Keith Urban
Producers: Byron Gallimore, Tim McGraw
Record Label: Big Machine Records

• “I Drive Your Truck” – Lee Brice
Producers: Lee Brice, Kyle Jacobs, Matt McClure
Record Label: Curb Records

• “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Miranda Lambert
Producers: Chuck Ainlay, Frank Liddell, Glenn Worf
Record Label: RCA Nashville

• “Wagon Wheel” – Darius Rucker Featuring Lady Antebellum
Producer: Frank Rogers
Record Label: Capitol Records Nashville

Nomination Criteria: This award is presented to the artist(s), producer(s) and record company of an outstanding country music single during the prior calendar year of November 29, 2012 to November 27, 2013. The factors to be considered include, but are not limited to, success at radio, record sales, success in digital media and impact of the single on consumers and the country music industry. The nominees shall be determined by a nomination ballot(s) and are subject to the approval of the Board. The winner shall be determined by a vote of the ACM professional membership.
Any single released and achieving its highest charted position on Billboard’s Country Airplay (BDS) or Country Aircheck (Mediabase) country charts during the eligibility period is eligible. If the single was released prior to the eligibility period, but achieved its highest charted position during the eligibility period, it is eligible unless it has appeared on a final ACM ballot in this category.

Who Should Win: The category ultimately comes down to “Wagon Wheel” and “Cruise.” “Cruise” had immense commercial success, but by the time the industry votes were counted, the song may have felt a bit old to many voters. “Wagon Wheel” meets all of the criteria and was well received by fans and the industry alike, so it may have a slight advantage over “Cruise.”

Who Will Win: We think voters will award “Wagon Wheel” the title of Single of the Year.

Song of the Year
[Awarded to Songwriter(s)/Publisher(s)/Artist(s)]

• “Every Storm (Runs Out Of Rain)” – Gary Allan
Songwriters: Gary Allan, Hillary Lindsey, Matthew Warren
Publishers: Always Alone Songs (ASCAP), Crystal Beach Music (BMI), Raylene Music (ASCAP)

• “I Drive Your Truck” – Lee Brice
Songwriters: Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Jimmy Yeary
Publishers: Beattyville Music (BMI), EMI Blackwood Music, Inc. (BMI), Great Day At This Music (BMI), Happy Tears Music (ASCAP), Vistaville Music (ASCAP), Watch This Girl Publishing (BMI)

• “Mama’s Broken Heart” – Miranda Lambert
Songwriters: Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves
Publishers: 351 Music (BMI), Crazy Water Music (ASCAP), Little Blue Egg (ASCAP), Songs of Parallel (ASCAP), Vista Loma Music (ASCAP), Warner-Tamerlane Publishing Corp. (BMI)

• “Mine Would Be You” – Blake Shelton
Songwriters: Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Deric Ruttan
Publishers: Doc and Maggie Music (ASCAP), EMI Blackwood Music, Inc. (BMI), Get A Load Of This Music (ASCAP), Great Day At This Music (BMI), Hopeless Rose Music (ASCAP), Vistaville Music (ASCAP), Watch This Girl Publishing (BMI), WB Music Corp. (ASCAP)

• “Wagon Wheel” – Darius Rucker Featuring Lady Antebellum
Songwriters: Bob Dylan, Ketch Secor
Publishers: Blood Donor Music (BMI), Special Rider Music (SESAC)

Nomination Criteria: This award is presented to the songwriter(s), publisher(s), and artist(s) of an outstanding country music song during the prior calendar year of November 29, 2012 to November 27, 2013. The factors to be considered include, but are not limited to, success at radio, record sales, success in digital media and impact of the song on consumers and the country music industry with emphasis on the creative integrity of the song. A Professional Panel of one (1) representative from each Membership Class, one (1) representative from each Performing Rights Organization (PRO), and three (3) established songwriters will submit five (5) nominees, which will be placed on the final ballot once approved by the Board. The winner shall be determined by a vote of the ACM professional membership.
Any song that received its highest charted position on Billboard’s Country Airplay (BDS) or Country Aircheck (Mediabase) country charts during the eligibility period is eligible, unless it has appeared on a final ACM ballot in this category.

Who Should Win: Hands down, “I Drive Your Truck,” written by Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington, Jimmy Yeary and performed by Lee Brice. This song pulls at your heartstrings and voters usually can’t resist a song like this for Song of the Year.

Who Will Win: There is little doubt that anything but “I Drive Your Truck” will come out on top.

Video of the Year
[Awarded to Producer(s)/Director(s)/Artist(s)] *(Off Camera Award) (TIE)

• “Better Dig Two” – The Band Perry
Producer: Eric Williams
Director: Declan Whitebloom

• “Blowin’ Smoke” – Kacey Musgraves
Producer: Josh Goldstein
Director: Honey

• “Highway Don’t Care” – Tim McGraw Featuring Taylor Swift & Keith Urban
Producers: Tameron Hedge, Chandra LaPlume
Director: Shane Drake

• “I Drive Your Truck” – Lee Brice
Producer: Karen Martin
Director: Eric Welch

• Mama’s Broken Heart – Miranda Lambert
Producer: Reagan Rosson
Director: Trey Fanjoy

• “Two Black Cadillacs” – Carrie Underwood
Producer: Steve Lamar
Director: P.R. Brown

Nomination Criteria: This award is presented to the producer(s), director(s) and artist(s) performing in an outstanding country music video during the prior calendar year of November 29, 2012 to November 27, 2013. Emphasis shall be placed on creativity, production, visual appeal and impact on consumers and the country music industry. The winner shall be determined by a vote of the ACM professional membership.
A Professional Panel from the video/production industry whose members are approved by the ACM officers will submit the final nominees, which will be placed on the final ballot once approved by the Board. The Panel will choose the final nominees from a pool of eligible videos submitted by record labels, as well as any other country music video that the panel deems worthy for consideration based on its artistic merit. If the video was released prior to the eligibility period, but achieved its biggest impact during the eligibility period, it is eligible unless it has appeared on a final ACM ballot in this category.

Who Should Win: “Two Black Cadillacs” and “Highway Don’t Care” are clear front-runners in this category for us. Both videos are virtually mini-movies and deserve to be recognized. It’s tough to pick a favorite.

Who Will Win: McGraw’s “Highway Don’t Care” will likely be a voter favorite.

Vocal Event of the Year
[Awarded to Artist(s)/Producer(s)/Record Company–Label(s)]*(Off Camera Award)

• “Boys ‘Round Here” – Blake Shelton Featuring Pistol Annies & Friends
Producer: Scott Hendricks
Record Label: Warner Bros. Records

• “Cruise (Remix)” – Florida Georgia Line Featuring Nelly
Producers: Joey Moi, Jason Nevins
Record Label: Republic Nashville

• “Highway Don’t Care” – Tim McGraw Featuring Taylor Swift & Keith Urban
Producers: Byron Gallimore, Tim McGraw
Record Label: Big Machine Records

• “Wagon Wheel” – Darius Rucker Featuring Lady Antebellum
Producer: Frank Rogers
Record Label: Capitol Records Nashville

• “We Were Us” – Keith Urban And Miranda Lambert
Producers: Nathan Chapman, Keith Urban
Record Labels: Capitol Records Nashville, Hit Red Records, RCA Nashville

Nomination Criteria: This award is presented to the artist(s), producer(s) and record company of an outstanding country music vocal event single record during the prior calendar year of November 29, 2012 to November 27, 2013. The factors to be considered include, but are not limited to, success at radio, record sales, success in digital media, video exposure and artistic merit of the single. The nominees shall be determined by a nomination ballot(s) and are subject to the approval of the Board. The winner shall be determined by a vote of the ACM professional membership.
Any vocal event single record released and achieving its highest charted position in Billboard’s Country Airplay (BDS) or Country Aircheck (Mediabase) country charts during the eligibility period is eligible. If the vocal event single record was released prior to the eligibility period, but achieved its highest charted position during the eligibility period, it is eligible unless it has appeared on a final ACM ballot in this category. To be eligible, the single must be a collaboration between two or more artists who do not normally perform together and are credited on the track listing.
In the event that the Board of Directors determines that there are not enough nominees in this category in any particular year, this category may not be awarded.

Who Should Win: For us, this category comes down to “We Were Us” by Keith Urban and Miranda Lambert and “Highway Don’t Care” featuring Tim McGraw, Taylor Swift & Keith Urban. Just like with Video of the Year, it’s tough to pick a favorite. Both songs are deserving.

Who Will Win: The superstar power of “Highway Don’t Care” will be difficult to beat.

LIVE broadcast of the 49th Annual Academy of Country Music Awards on Sunday April 6, 2014 at 8:00 PM live ET/delayed PT on the CBS Television Network.